Trump Slump Confirmed
Analysis shows decline in travel to the USA while the rest of the world pushes ahead
International air arrivals in the United States have fallen consistently since President Donald Trump’s original travel ban on people from several mainly Muslim countries, according to the latest data from ForwardKeys which predicts future global travel patterns by analysing more than 17 million booking transactions a day.
The period of decline also coincides with a strengthening US dollar making the States a more expensive destination.
Since January 27 this year when the first controversial travel ban was introduced there has been an overall decline of 1.4% compared to the same period last year, according to ForwardKeys.
The timeline reveals a correlation between the imposition of the first travel ban and the start of a decline in travel to the USA.
Meanwhile international arrivals in the rest of the world show an overall increase of 4.6%, climbing consistently over the same period.
The decline in travel to the United States is from around the world – Europe, Asia Pacific and the Middle East. Only travel from elsewhere in the Americas, and Africa (which has a small 2.1% market share of travel to the USA) has shown growth.
Europe – with a 39.4% market share – slumped by 2.3% over the year to the end of September. Asia Pacific – with a 23% market share – was down 3.8%.
ForwardKeys co-founder and CEO, Olivier Jager said: “Our latest detailed findings confirm what our data has been predicting since the first travel ban. There has been a Trump Slump and the strong dollar has compounded it.”
“This must be worrying for the US economy – travel is a huge earner for the United States and relative to the rest of the world, its tourism exports are losing ground.”
“Whilst disappointed for the USA by the latest travel data, we are relieved that the quality of our analysis last April, which was heavily questioned at the time, has been vindicated.”
ForwardKeys analyses more than 17m flight booking transactions a day, drawing data from all the major global air reservation systems and selected airlines and tour operators. This information is enhanced with further independent data sets, including flight search and official government statistics, plus data science to paint a picture of who is travelling where and when. ForwardKeys’ analytics are used by travel marketers, retailers, hotels, destination marketing organisations (DMOs), financial institutions, car rental companies, tour operators, online travel agents (OTAs) and other traveller-focussed businesses worldwide to monitor and anticipate traveller arrivals from a particular origin market at a specific time. This analysis enables parties to anticipate the impact of events, better manage their staffing levels, fine tune supply requirements, adjust and measure the effectiveness of their marketing efforts and anticipate future market trends.